Under guise of “law,” “national security,” “social security,” “great society,” “democracy,” “property rights” blah, blah, blah…įix the government problem, as in fix it once and for all, final solution style, and productive people will be just fine. None of which amount to anything more than yet more imaginary hobgoblins, deployed to divert productive people’s attention away from the only threat they ever have, and ever will, face: Government, and those closest and best connected to it, robbing them blind. Yet what has made life hard for working and productive people since then, is simple graft by government, law and financialization. Know-nothings have been waxing nonseneically about flying cars, teleporters, space travel and AI since the 50s. If millions of anything vanish in a few years, it will on account of something very different than robots. If you hold a useless in degree in humanities, English, etc., you will have skills necessary to work at McDonalds, bartend, be a server, or a teacher.īut those jobs are among those that will vanish. One does not easily switch careers today based on one college class. One class, my free elective at the University of Illinois, Advanced PL1 Programming, was all it took. I was able to quickly switch into computer programming from a degree in civil engineering. The problem is today’s bartenders, truck drivers, and McDonald’s workers will not be able to retain for jobs when we have no idea where those jobs will be.īoomers had it easy. How many people in 2000 gave much thought to the possibility of self-driving trucks? We already see more self-checkout lanes and that process will speed up. The push for $15 will speed up adaptation of robots that cook, tend bars, etc. Taxi and limo jobs will vanish at the same time or perhaps a year or two later. Millions on interstate truck driving jobs will vanish early in the cycle, no later than 2024, but I strongly suggest one to two years before that. Some things are easy to foresee, however. Potential to displace and actually doing it are two different things. Of the total displaced, 75 million to 375 million may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills, under our midpoint and earliest automation adoption scenarios under our trendline adoption scenario, however, this number would be very small-less than 10 million However, people will need to find their way into these jobs. New jobs will be available, based on our scenarios of future labor demand and the net impact of automation, as described in the next section. We estimate that between 400 million and 800 million individuals could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by 2030 around the world, based on our midpoint and earliest (that is, the most rapid) automation adoption scenarios. Yet even as these technologies increase productivity and improve our lives, their use will substitute for some work activities humans currently perform-a development that has sparked much public concern. Cars that drive themselves, machines that read X-rays, and algorithms that respond to customer-service inquiries are all manifestations of powerful new forms of automation. The technology-driven world in which we live is a world filled with promise but also challenges. Nonetheless, please consider Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. The McKinsey study the article cites is from November of 2017. The article did not say how MGM could get around the contract. Why any company would agree to a long-term contract forcing them to not reduce costs is a mystery. A McKinsey and Company report estimates that by 2030, 800 million jobs will get robot replacements.
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